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Read Charles Delvalle's previous newsletter articles below:

The Next Wave of Bankruptcies

Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

Banks have lost over $680 billion because of the huge wave of foreclosures that has hit the market over the past two years. And losses are beginning to ratchet up somewhere else, too: consumer credit card charge-offs.

Charge-offs are debts that a company deems “uncollectible.” According to Moody’s Investor Services, credit card charge-offs increased by 48 percent in August alone. And Moody’s expects them to continue increasing into late next year.

6.82 percent of all credit card debt has now been written off. With unemployment rising and the economy falling into even more dire straits, the credit card charge-off rate is sure to skyrocket. Which means that banks that have relied heavily on income from credit cards – like Capital One (COF) and American Express (AXP) – are sure to see bigger losses.

[Ed. Note: Keep away from companies that depend on credit cards. But keep an eye on companies that have issued a "red flag" alert. This could be your key to future profits. Find out what a "red flag" is and how it can make you money right here.]

 

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Will the Slowing Economy Affect IT Spending?

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

“How much of an impact will the global financial turmoil have on the technology field – particularly the telecommunication sector? Hoping to hear from you soon.”

Muneera M.

 

Hi Muneera,

The answer to that question is actually pretty simple.

The reason the markets have been in a freefall lately is because banks have been unwilling to lend to each other, much less to corporations. So if corporations can’t borrow money from banks, how are they supposed to make upgrades – like improving their IT equipment?

For that reason alone, we should see a slowdown in the technology field (which includes telecommunications). While I won’t say that growth in this sector will disappear, the rapid growth we saw in the past five years won’t be sustainable.

Cash-rich companies that should be immune to this slowdown include Intel (INTC), IBM (IBM), and Nvidia (NVDA).

- Charles Delvalle

[Ed. Note: The real secret of how to bank riches in the market is to look in unconventional places. Right now, about 7,000 companies could be about to issue a "Red Flag" alert, an unconventional signal that you could profit from. Discover what this "Red Flag" is - and how to use it to your advantage - right here.]

 

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Dear ETR: How Do Bailouts Affect Stock Prices?

Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008

“In his article entitled ‘Financial Word of the Week: Bailout,’ Charles Delvalle said that if a person holds stock in one of the companies that is being bailed out, it may be nearly worthless. He further suggested that ’selling is usually your best option.’ This does not make sense to me. He, himself, said that bailing out Chrysler helped them stay in business.

“So, with this in mind, wouldn’t it stand true that this bailout should help most (if not all) the bailed out banks to remain in business? If they can remain open for business, it might be wiser to hold those shares. Then, later, they could be once again worth at least what shareholders originally paid, if not more.

“I do hope Charles will comment in ETR for all to hear his thoughts on this matter.”

Steve

 

Dear Steve,

You are correct. When Chrysler was bailed out, it marked a great time to buy that company’s stock. But the bailouts happening today are very different.

Stockholders suffered the most when Bear Stearns was bailed out. That’s because the bailout was structured to protect ONLY bondholders (very unlike Chrysler’s bailout, which was really just a loan to them from the government).

In fact, practically every financial sector bailout that has occurred this year has been structured to protect bondholders, not stockholders. The only stockholders who might hope for some protection are holders of preferred shares. But even for them, the losses realized can be huge.

For instance, the bailout of Fannie and Freddie effectively killed the steady dividend payment that their preferred shareholders had been receiving. This helped drop share prices from over $20 to under $2. And while it is true that Fannie and Freddie’s preferred shareholders “may” eventually see their shares worth $20 again, it could take years.

The only recent bailout that was a plus for shareholders was the bailout of Ford, Chrysler, and GM. Under the government’s terms, the big three are eligible for $25 billion (split amongst the three), and they won’t have to begin to repay the loan for a few years. In this scenario, the bailout adds a layer of safety to their shares, since the companies are gaining access to cash during a credit crunch – allowing them to survive while the economy suffers.

The lesson here is to stay away from financial companies that are being bailed out. They are structured so that stockholders suffer while bondholders get all the benefits.

Makes you want to buy some bonds, right?

- Charles Delvalle

[Ed. Note: The economy may be in an uproar these days, but there are still ways for you to make money. The real secret to banking riches in today's market is to look in unconventional places. You can access one of these "hidden treasure troves" just by keeping an eye out for "Red Flag" alerts. Find out how to spot the Red Flags, and how they can help you prosper, right here.]
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Financial Word of the Week: Dividends

Saturday, October 11th, 2008

It’s nice to own stocks, sure. But do those companies pay you dividends for owning them?

A dividend is like a corporate profit split. As the company earns profits, they can choose to pay out a percentage of those profits to their shareholders.

Shareholders love dividends, because it gives them an interest in the continuing profits the company is making. Oftentimes, shareholders will even reinvest their dividend payments and buy new shares.

Had you been doing that with cigarette maker Altria (NYSE:MO) since 1970, you would have seen a return of nearly 98,000 percent to date. In other words, every $1,000 you invested would have turned into nearly a million dollars.

Another great thing about dividends is that they give you a clue as to how a company is doing financially. If a company is lowering its dividends, that’s an indication it is suffering financially – and you almost certainly wouldn’t want to own it. If a company is raising its dividends, it is growing quickly and would be one to keep in your portfolio.

Dividends are extremely helpful in creating lasting, true wealth. So whenever you’re searching for a stock, check to see if it’s been paying increasingly large dividends. If it has, you should be able to count on its “profit splits” for years to come.

[Ed. Note: Breaking down incomprehensible financial lingo is only one way ETR's investment team - including investment analyst Charles Delvalle - can help improve your investing IQ. With ETR's Red Flag Insider financial advisory service, you can discover a surprising way that dividends can make you prosper. Learn more here.

And be sure to send your financial questions to Charles and the rest of the ETR team at AskETR@ETRFeedback.com. Include your full name and hometown, and they may respond to your question in Early to Rise.]

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Financial Word of the Week: Bailout

Wednesday, October 1st, 2008

With all of the turmoil in the financial industry, one word that keeps making the rounds is “bailout.” So here’s what you need to know.

A bailout is when the government extends a loan (or takes over) a private company because it is deemed “too large to fail.” Bailouts are nothing new, although they never happened in the U.S. to the extent that we’ve been seeing recently.

One of the most famous bailouts was that of Chrysler Corporation back in 1979. They were on the verge of bankruptcy. But instead of letting a huge job provider fail, the government extended a $1.5 billion loan. (They also bought a bunch of Chrysler’s Jeeps for military use.) This helped Chrysler get back on its feet.

AIG, the country’s largest insurer, recently received an estimated $85 billion bailout. And the bailout engineered for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could cost over $200 billion.

If you own stock in a company being bailed out by the government, your shares will be worth next to nothing. Selling is usually your best option. But hold your bonds. Bondholders make out like bandits, since the bailout usually ensures that their interest payments are made on time.

[Ed. Note: Breaking down incomprehensible financial lingo is only one way ETR's financial experts can help improve your investing IQ. With our INCOME financial advisory service, we can show you the best - and safest - stocks to invest in and profit from. Learn more here.
And be sure to send your financial questions to our financial team at AskETR@ETRFeedback.com. Include your full name and hometown, and they may respond to your question in Early to Rise.]

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The Next Bailout Is Old News

Friday, September 19th, 2008

After the recent bailout of AIG, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae, investors are wondering if the Big Three – Chrysler, GM, and Ford – are next. Sorry to tell you, but they’ve already been bailed out.

It happened without much fanfare last December, when Congress approved a $25 billion loan package for the Big Three (about $8.3 billion per automaker). This loan was passed in part to help spur the development of fuel-efficient engines, designs, and technologies.

While a bailout is never good news, it does give the Big Three more than enough capital to keep operating past 2010. With the lowered default risk, GM and Ford bonds are very attractive (and safe).

You could get into GM or Ford bonds maturing in 2010 at a great discount to par (and interest payments in excess of 7 percent). To find them, simply go to the Yahoo screener (screen.yahoo.com/bonds.html) and enter your criteria.

[Ed. Note: As investment analyst Charles Delvalle points out, you need to understand what you're doing when you put your money into a company. We've put together a surprisingly simple system that can help you make the best choices. Learn more here.]

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Who Makes the U.S. Budget Deficit Worse – Democrats or Republicans?

Saturday, September 13th, 2008

Republicans like to call themselves the party of fiscal discipline. But if you dig into the numbers, you might find some surprises.

Since 1938, Democrats increased the budget deficit by about 8.3 percent, while Republicans grew the deficit by 9.7 percent – almost a 20 percent increase.

Perhaps most startling is what’s happened since 1946.

From 1946 to today, Democratic presidents pushed the deficit up by 3.2 percent per year. Meanwhile, Republican presidents increased the budget deficit by 9.7 percent. In other words, since 1946, Republican presidents have outspent Democratic presidents by almost 3 to 1. So much for the party of fiscal discipline.

This matters to you, because huge budget deficits decrease the value of the U.S. dollar.

Whether we elect a Democrat or Republican president in November, there’s a chance that we may actually see deficits decrease. And that would lead to a stronger dollar. The easiest way to play a stronger dollar is by buying the Rydex Strengthening Dollar ETF (RYSBX), which moves up 2 percent every time the dollar moves up 1 percent.

[Ed. Note: No matter what happens this November, you need to know how to protect your money. One of the best ways to do so? By following a simple system that can help you make money in any market condition.]

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Weather Can Make a Difference in Your Portfolio

Wednesday, September 10th, 2008

When it comes to the stock market, one of the biggest drivers (or takers) of wealth is, surprisingly, the weather.

You see, demand spikes for certain commodities rely on what the weather is doing. If the summer is excruciatingly hot, for example, you’ll see electricity use rise as people crank up their air conditioners. As demand moves higher, utility companies are rewarded with more revenue.

A cold winter, too, causes demand spikes in commodities. And according to The Farmers’ Almanac (which has been right about 80 percent of the time), the coming winter is expected to be one of the coldest on record.

As the winter weather forces homeowners to bundle up and buy more natural gas to heat their homes, you can expect natural gas prices to move higher. And as those prices move higher, homeowners will have less money to spend on everything else, including holiday gifts.

One of the best ways to play this situation is to buy shares of Chesapeake Energy (CHK), which moves higher with the price of natural gas. Also, steer clear of buying retailers like Target (TGT) until spring.

[Ed. Note: Changes in the weather may reveal opportunities for you to profit. But there are other patterns you can follow that could put you on the path to more wealth than you can imagine. Get the details here.]

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The Effect of Corporate Bankruptcy on Stocks and Bonds

Monday, September 1st, 2008

As a stock or bond holder, you are part owner of the corporation whose stock or bond you hold. So what happens if that company goes into Chapter 7 bankruptcy?

If you are a stockholder, you’ll see a huge drop in the value of your shares. And the worst part is that when it comes to paying back debtors, stockholders are at the very end of the list. Which means that if the company goes bankrupt, you take on the most risk. In fact, you shouldn’t expect to be compensated at all.

If you are a bondholder, your risk is much lower but it isn’t eliminated. When a corporation claims bankruptcy, it first has to pay any back wages, mortgages, credit lines, and other corporations it owes money to. Cash left over is used to compensate bondholders. Oftentimes, you can’t expect to get back your entire investment.

The best way to avoid what a corporate bankruptcy could do to your portfolio is to buy companies that have ample cash, little debt, and steady profit and revenue growth for the past three years.

How do you find that information? Go to finance.yahoo.com  and enter the ticker symbol of the company you are interested in. Once there, look at the bar on the right-hand side and choose “Key Statistics.” All of the company’s important financial numbers will be right there.

[Ed. Note: As investment analyst Charles Delvalle points out, you need to understand what you're doing when you put your money into a company. We've put together a surprisingly simple system that can help you make the best choices. Learn more here.]

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Obama’s Nasty Effect on Pharmaceutical Companies

Friday, August 1st, 2008

Some of the solidest opportunities in the stock market arise because of politics.

The government controls billions of dollars. That kind of power can make or break an industry. And the effect that an Obama presidency could have on pharmaceutical companies is one you should be aware of.

As you may know, Obama (and Democrats, in general) is in favor of importing generic medicines from overseas. This would not only increase the use of generics in this country, but also allow the government to negotiate lower prices with U.S. drug manufacturers for their name brands. Sounds good for us… but it’s not good for the big pharmaceutical companies.

First of all, if the use of generics increases, the big pharmaceutical companies will make fewer sales with their name brands. Second, the drug companies charge Americans up to two times more than they charge Europeans and Canadians for the same medicine. If the government negotiates lower prices for Americans, that means their profits could be cut in half. And if that happens, you can be sure their stock prices will fall as well.

So do yourself a favor and stay away from pharmaceutical companies until well after November 11.

[Ed. Note: One of the golden rules of investing is DON'T LOSE MONEY. You can keep your cash safe by following market analyst Charles Delvalle's advice to stay away from pharmaceutical companies. And you can keep your money safe AND make it grow by investing in low-risk, high-value stocks. Learn how you can pinpoint the safest stocks with the highest profit potential right here.]

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How Recessions Help You

Tuesday, July 22nd, 2008

Recession. It’s the boogeyman of the economic cycle. And while many people dread these low points, our economy would be worse off without them. How could something so negative make a positive impact on the economy? It’s simple.

When the economy is expanding, money flows into hot, high-growth sectors. Over the years, as the money piles into one or two booming sectors, other sectors are ignored. Eventually, there is over-investment in the booming sectors, while the others are left under-invested.

What a recession does is help reduce the over-investment and redistribute that money to under-invested sectors. This helps add new jobs, new industries, and new sources of income to the economy.

For example, after the real estate bubble collapsed, the money flew (and is still flying) right into commodities (which saw massive under-investment throughout the 90s). You can be sure that once the commodity sector expands significantly and finally begins contracting, money will fly into other parts of the economy that need the money more.

So you see, recessions are a necessary function of the markets. Without them, money isn’t distributed as effectively. And you can do your part to nudge the economy upward – and make serious money for yourself – by seeking out good deals in under-invested sectors.

[Ed. Note: No matter how bleak the economy looks right now, there is still room for you to make money. In fact, once you master a surprisingly simple system, you can be on your way to more wealth than you can imagine. Get the details here.]

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Looking Back Is Easy; Looking Forward Is the Problem

Friday, July 18th, 2008

When I started looking for ways to make consistent profits from the stock market, the first thing I learned about was technical analysis. With technical analysis, you use stock charts and various indicators to get a read for where a stock price might be heading.

The simplest explanation of how it works is that you look to previous price moves and try to pull out a pattern. So if a stock has a history of moving down to $10 a share and immediately moving $3 higher, then you buy at $10, hoping history will repeat itself.

However, if you’re going to use technical analysis, you have to understand that technical patterns in the stock market don’t always repeat themselves, because the many factors that affect price moves are never exactly the same. If you are convinced that history is always going to repeat itself, you are bound to hold onto your positions too long and lose a lot of money.

Of course, you will have some losses no matter what method you use to make your investing decisions. But with technical analysis, you’ll be able to quickly recognize your losers and cut them before they get worse.

[Ed. Note: Some of the most profound truths of investing are just as simple as the one investment analyst Charles Delvalle revealed above. And making money in the markets can be surprisingly easy, too. Learn just how simple it can be right here.] 

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Are Those Dividends Reliable?

Thursday, July 10th, 2008

Many investors rely on stocks that offer dividend payments to supplement their retirement income. But how do you know that the company you’re looking at will continue to pay out steady dividends?

One of the best ways is to look at the company’s history of making dividend payments. Then you can see if it pays dividends sporadically or if it pays them regularly, every quarter.

Finding a company’s payout history is easy. Simply go to finance.yahoo.com and enter the company’s ticker symbol at the top. Once the company is pulled up, look to the menu on the left and click on "Historical Prices." You’ll see an option that says "Dividends Only." Choose that option and then hit "Get Prices."

What you’re looking for is a company that has paid at least 12 straight quarters of steady or increasing dividends. When you find that, you can be pretty sure you’ll get the dividends you are looking for.

[Ed. Note: It's not difficult to make smart choices when it comes to your investments. Charles Delvalle is a market analyst for Investor's Daily Edge, a free online resource that explains what the financial news means to you - and how you should act today to make the most money with the least risk.]

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Controlling the Urge

Monday, June 30th, 2008

Ask any big-name investor what it takes to make consistent money in the stock market and they’ll all tell you the same thing: Discipline. Yet many investors leave discipline at the door when they decide to buy or sell stock.

That is the worst mistake you can make – because investing in the stock market is all about probabilities.

Let’s say you have a system that gives you winners 70 percent of the time. If you don’t follow the system on your next trade, the likelihood that you’ll get a winner could drop to 40 or 50 percent. Not only did you lose your discipline, you are also far more likely to lose money.

The best way to stay disciplined and control the urge to break away from your system is to remember one thing: There will always be another opportunity.

As long as you know that you’ll have more opportunities to make money, you’ll be less likely to go for the one that isn’t really in sync with your system. You’ll know that in the next few days, there’s a good chance you’ll see an opportunity that suits your system to a T.

[Ed. Note: As market analyst Charles Delvalle points out, discipline - not years of experience, not fancy tools - can help you make money in the stock market. And with a super-simple system to keep you on track, you'll be able to maximize your wins and minimize your losses.]

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Using Your Emotions the Right Way for Investing

Saturday, March 29th, 2008

Figuring out when to sell a stock is never easy. And most experts wisely recommend keeping your emotions out of the decision. Of course, every rule has its exceptions. So let’s revise this one.

Edwin Lefevre, one of the greatest investors of all time (he made a fortune back in the 1920s) routinely used fear and hope – two emotions that often lead investors astray – to determine whether to get out of a trade or stick with it. But he used them in a very specific way. Here it is…

  • If a stock was losing money: Instead of hoping it would turn around, he would fear losing more money and sell out of his position.
  • If a stock was making money: Instead of fearing it was hitting a high, he would hope to make more money and hold on.

This approach gets you out of stocks that can keep dropping in value. It also keeps you in stocks that can continue rising. Of course, once that winning stock starts losing money and you "fear losing more money," you sell your position and capture a profit.

Edwin used his strategy strictly for short-term investing (any trade that lasts under a month). But you could still apply it to longer-term investing. All you have to do is set a stop-loss point at your personal "pain threshold." That is, if it hurts when a stock drops 10 percent from where you bought it, use 10 percent as your sell point. If it hurts when a stock drops 25 percent, use that as your sell point.

[Ed. Note: Charles Delvalle is a contributing editor to ETR's Investor's Daily Edge newsletter, and a regular contributor to INCOME. INCOME lets you in on the safest high-dividend-paying companies, with the goal of providing you with a total return (dividends plus capital gains) of at least 14 percent per year.]

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The Housing Bust Is Still Kicking

Saturday, March 22nd, 2008

The biggest drag on the stock market this year can be summed up in one word: Housing. Because home prices have dropped, banks have cut back lending. Which, in turn, is slowing down the economy. And though many gurus are trying to call a bottom in the housing market, they’re dead wrong. I continue to see home prices dropping.

Last year, you couldn’t find a decent condo in West Palm Beach, FL for less than $200,000. But for the past two months, I’ve been seeing them at drastically reduced prices. I’m talking about 2/2s for under $100,000. That’s a 50 percent price drop – far greater than the five percent drop government reports would have you believe.

And in South Florida, the market is still falling. This year, we’ll see a huge spike in foreclosures. As banks try to offload those foreclosed properties, neighborhood prices should drop even further. That means there’ll be a lot of opportunities here if you’re looking to buy a home in six months.

That also means housing won’t stop dragging the market down for some time. You can continue to expect a bear market in stocks, so stay away. Instead, buy the Ultra Short Dow Proshares ETF (DXD), which gives you a two percent return every time the Dow Jones drops one percent.

Buying this ETF is easy too. All you have to do is contact your broker (or get an online brokerage account) and follow their instructions.

[Ed. Note: Charles Delvalle is a contributing editor to ETR's Investor's Daily Edge newsletter, and a regular contributor to INCOME. INCOME lets you in on the safest high-dividend-paying companies, with the goal of providing you with a total return (dividends plus capital gains) of at least 14 percent per year.]

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