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WEALTH
Many
Are Becoming Skeptical About Real Estate Stocks
American
investors are growing bearish on the real estate market. According
to a report by Banc of America Securities, REITs (Real Estate
Investment Trusts) have increased steadily over the past year.
Today (factoring out initial public offerings), they are "58%
more numerous than they were around this time last year."
Real
estate investors, myself included, are hoping the doubters are
wrong - or at least too early. As Bruce Schonbraun, managing
member of the Schonbraun McCann Group, a real estate advisory
group, told The Wall Street Journal recently, "The real
estate sector has boned up dramatically over the last few years.
So it's not unusual to have a bit more of the short-sellers
standing there than before."
ETR's
position: The market IS overvalued, generally speaking. But
over the long run (7+ years) the trend is - as always - up.
By 2025, 60 billion new houses will have to be built in America
to meet the demand for replacement construction and a significant
increase in population.
Our
advice: Avoid investing in condominiums and especially avoid
investing in pre-construction projects. Condominium apartments
are the most overvalued and the most likely to take a serious
hit (25% or more). Buying into a preconstruction deal might
result in a total loss if the builder goes bankrupt.
If
you follow Justin Ford's advice in Main
Street Millionaire and stick with investments
that can survive a 15% depreciation (in rentable housing, properly
financed), you'll probably be fine - even if we do experience
a pullback.
-
Michael Masterson
Kudos
to USA Today for Promoting Good Health, but...
The
front page of USA Today's "Life" section recently
led with a profile of Ronald Killens, an obese 14-year-old who's
taking on the newspaper's challenge to get back to a healthy
weight and "show others" how he did it.
The
story carried several photos of Ronald. And it's not surprising
why he was chosen as their poster child. He's huge. But he's
also photogenic. His smile is as big as his gut. Losing weight,
the photos say, can be a lot of fun.
But
rhere is a problem with USA Today's program. Not wanting to
take any particular position on what constitutes a healthy diet,
it allows participants to "follow their own plans, incorporating
advice and tools in USA Today or at USAToday.com, or follow
structured menus that have been prepared by weight-loss experts."
USA Today's featured diets follow the government's faulty program
that is pretty good on calories (1,500 to 1,800 per day) but
too heavy on carbohydrates and too vague on fats.
I've
asked Jon Herring to take a look at this and report back to
us in the near future.
- Michael Masterson
WISDOM
You
Can Safely Assume That...
-
The e-mails you send will be seen by more people than those
they're addressed to.
-
Things said "between you and me" won't stay that
way.
-
The time you take a long break will be the time your boss
looks for you.
-
Treat one customer poorly and 10 people will hear about
it, including someone who has authority over you.
-
Your ability to "get another job" will be directly
related to how well you do on the job you have now.
-
Whenever you think "no one will know," someone
will.
-
Whenever you think "no one will care," someone
will.
-
Whenever you think "it will never be missed,"
it will.
-
Whenever you think you are as good as you need to be, you
aren't.
(Source:
"Start Right... Stay Right: Every Employee's Straight-Talk
Guide to Job Success")
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TODAY'S
MESSAGE
An
Idea for You From Bill Gates That Will Help You Take a Giant
Step Forward
by
Michael Masterson
Have
you ever noticed that some of your best ideas come to you when
you are on vacation? It's a common phenomenon. And there are
three good reasons that it happens so frequently:
1.
When you are far away from the quotidian (see "Word to
the Wise," below) emergencies of your busy life, you
can begin to see the big picture.
2.
When you are in a relaxed atmosphere, it's easier to remember
what really matters to you.
3.
When you are out of your common element, the creative part
of your brain is stimulated in new and different ways.
The
away-from-the-office experience is almost always rejuvenating
as well as productive - and I'm not just talking about being
on vacation. This is the reason many corporations sponsor working
retreats.
But
you don't have to wait for your company to whisk you away. You
can schedule your own idea-generating mini-retreat.
I've
been inspired to do so by an article I read about Bill Gates.
Apparently, he goes on two week-long retreats each year to assess
what his company has been doing and where it ought to be going.
He calls them his "Think Weeks" - and until very recently,
what he does during those seven days "in a cedar forest
in the Pacific Northwest" has been "a tightly held
corporate secret," according to Robert A. Guth, a Wall
Street Journal writer who scored an interview with Gates at
his secluded cottage.
Turns
out that what Gates does during his away time is not so remarkable:
He spends 15 hours a day reading newspapers, magazines, and
company reports. Except for a caretaker who brings him two meals
a day (lunch and dinner - typically something like a cup of
clam chowder, a grilled cheese sandwich, and a diet Orange Crush),
he doesn't see anyone - even his wife. He sleeps in a small
bedroom that takes up a corner of the cottage and shuffles around
all day, reading and taking notes.
Gates
is searching for ideas about trends - trends in digital communications,
advances in microprocessor "clock speed," digital
photography, and so on. The week is a cram session of inputs,
followed by a flood of e-mail messages to his colleagues and
employees about new ideas, old ideas, existing projects, and
proposed ones.
He
has held some form of Think Week for himself since the 1980s,
Guth reports. "Think Week's material has evolved from heaps
of paper reports to a computerized library that has fields for
Mr. Gates to enter comments and links to related documents,
backed up by paper versions."
Prior
to each Think Week, Gates has his assistants collect papers
"from every corner of Microsoft," according to what
they think his priorities should be. It's actually an "open
call for papers that lets employees of any level reach the top
with their ideas."
The
retreat is not relaxing. He sometimes works 18 hours a day.
For breaks, he gives himself five minutes to solve a daily online
bridge problem. Occasionally, he'll take a short walk.
The
output is significant. One of his generals said he spent an
entire weekend reading through a six-inch printout of Gates's
most recent Think Week comments. And then there are follow-up
meetings for weeks afterward.
Think
about what you have done this past year to get away from the
fray and see your business (your career, your personal life)
from a longer-term, broader-view perspective. And consider this:
If it works so well for Bill Gates, won't it work for you?
I
asked these questions of myself and the answer came back a humble
"yes." But no sooner had it passed my lips than a
host of problems rose to mind - reasons I couldn't afford a
week away from the business (or why some of the businesses I
consult for can't afford a week without me):
-
I've got to keep my eye on the marketing reports.
-
The products in development need my critical eye.
-
The energy level of the office will drop in my absence.
-
Somebody might do something really foolish if I'm not there.
I
could go on. But these are the objections of someone who doesn't
want to (or know how to) let go and let his colleagues do their
jobs responsibly.
Yes,
your company needs you. But not every single day. Consider your
time gone an opportunity for everyone to take a step up in terms
of responsibility and skills. Plan the time off and then take
it.
And
don't sabotage your retreat by pre-planting all sorts of links
between yourself and work - so that, just in case you are absolutely
needed, you can be reached. To make a retreat work properly,
you've got to do it the way Gates does: Shut out every one and
every thing. No e-mail or phone contact. Yes, you can leave
an emergency number - but define what a true emergency is (the
office burns down, the CFO is arrested, etc.).
The
point is to give yourself the time, space, and quiet to think.
To shut out your work... so you can let in the inputs.
For
Bill Gates, the inputs that stimulate his thinking are newspapers
and technical reports. For you, it might be books and magazines.
Or inspirational materials. Decide what you need to bring with
you and then figure out what kind of schedule will work best
for you.
I
think I'll start with a two-day test. And to make it an ETR
sort of retreat, I believe I'll divide that time into four Think
Sessions, one for each of my four major priorities.
Already,
that seems like an ambitious goal - two uninterrupted days by
myself. But I'm going to do it. And I expect that I will come
away from my mini-retreat with so many stimulating ideas and
fresh solutions to old problems - and with so much renewed energy
and enthusiasm for my work - that I'll be ready to schedule
another one immediately. Maybe even, like Bill Gates, an entire
Think Week.
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TODAY'S
ACTION PLAN
Take
out your calendar and schedule your own mini-retreat. Even if
you can manage only one day, it will be worthwhile. Don't take
time away from your regular vacation. Remember, this is a "working"
retreat.
If
you work for someone else, let your boss know what you're doing.
Tell him that you'll make sure all of your important work will
be "covered" while you're away (and make sure it is).
And explain to him how it will benefit him to support you in
this experiment.
If
this works out the way I think it will, plan to make it a regular
part of your career-building plan of action.
IT'S
GOOD TO KNOW
Everybody
Is Busy
Two
out of three Mexicans say there is never enough time to get
things done, according to Ipsos Global Express. That's true
also of Italians and Americans. Where do people have a less
harried view of life? How about Russia and China, where almost
70% of those asked said they felt they had plenty of time to
do everything.
-
Michael Masterson
WORD
TO THE WISE
Something
that is "quotidian" is ordinary -
something that occurs every day. The word comes from the Latin
"quotidie," meaning "each day."
Example
(the way I used it in Today's Message): "When you are far
away from the quotidian emergencies of your busy life, you can
begin to see the big picture.
