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When
to Go With the Flow
By
Charles Delvalle
When you
buy can be critical to the success of your investment - especially
if you don't plan to hold onto a stock for long time. Keep
in mind that 75 percent of companies move in the same direction
as the market, so your short-term selections should always
follow the market trend.
Let's
say you want to invest in Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI),
which you believe will go up. To make sure you're not investing
against the market, take a look at the index Sirius belongs
to - the Nasdaq. Is it going up or going down? If, for instance,
the Nasdaq is going down, you shouldn't bet that Sirius will
go up. You would be investing against the market.
Of
course, if you want to buy and hold the stock, it doesn't
matter what the Nasdaq is doing right now. For a long-term
investment, it's more important that your pick has a strong
growth strategy and management team.
(Ed.
Note: Charles Delvalle is the Managing Editor of ETR's Money
Insight [link] newsletter.)
"Some
decisions, like opening a fire hydrant to put out a
fire, are easy to make. Other decisions, like deciding
how to best distribute a drought-limited water supply
among urban, rural, and recreational uses, require
careful deliberation."
-
Ben Nelson
Making
Decisions: A Classic Struggle Between Head and Heart
By
Michael Masterson
In
a recent issue of The New Yorker, I came
across an essay by Elizabeth Kolbert called "Chilling." Antarctica,
she says, is losing ice. The evidence comes from the University
of Colorado, where researches are interpreting data from
Tom and Jerry, two orbiting satellites sent into space in
March of 2002.
The
rate of loss, according to the Colorado researchers, is great
- about 36 cubic miles per day. And if the loss continues,
it will mean that in the next hundred years the sea will
rise much farther and faster than scientists had predicted.
That
disturbed me.
For
a long time, I had been very blase about global warming,
arguing that most of the world could do with some warmer
weather. But the more I looked into the subject, the more
concerned I became. The bulk of the science suggests global
warming is both real and dangerous. "Some say climate
change is something for our kids to worry about," one
official told The Washington Post. "No.
It is now."
If
everyone has agreed that global warming is something we should
deal with now, what we do about it is still a matter of debate. "Yes,
the planet may be warming up, but no one can be sure of why," says
Ms. Kolbert. "And, in any case, it doesn't matter -
let's stop quibbling about the causes of the climate change
and concentrate on dealing with the consequences."
I
went to bed that night thinking about the threat of global
warming and its effects (including raising the sea level
by a foot or more), and dreamed my house was being washed
out to sea.
I
woke up wondering if I should sell my home and buy another
one further inland. That would be the prudent thing to do,
I figured. Better to get out now while I could still get
a good price. If I waited until it was obvious that all these
coastal properties were going to be flooded one day, I'd
be out several million dollars.
On
the other hand, my heart argued, I have no reason to believe
that the ocean is going to rise. It hasn't risen in all the
years that I've been living across from it. Chances are,
it won't rise in the future.
Plus,
my heart continued, I love this house. I love the
way it looks, the way it feels, and the view I get every
time I look out the window. Why give up something I truly
love because I fear that one day it will be less valuable
or even worthless?
My
dilemma was a classic struggle between head and heart. It
was also, I realized, an example of the difference between
two very different kinds of knowledge: wissen and erfahrung.
Wissen,
you may recall from past articles in ETR, is the kind of
knowledge that the head prefers: facts, figures, and data
collected from second- and third-party sources, including
research.
Erfahrung,
on the other hand, is the kind of knowledge you get from
experience. Burn your hand once on a hot stove and you will
always be reluctant to put your hand there again, even if
you read a hundred articles telling you that fire isn't painful.
Erfahrung
knowledge is deep and true. You can sometimes misinterpret
the causes or effects of your experience, but the experience
itself will leave an impression with you that you should
trust.
The
feeling I had in my heart was telling me to stay put. At
the same time, the wissen knowledge I had gathered about
global warming was running around my head, scaring the hell
out of me.
But
though I had read some compelling evidence that supported
the view that the world is warming and the seas are going
to rise, I didn't know it. And when I realized how
much I didn't know about this subject and how unlikely
it is that I will ever know enough to about it to have
a useful opinion, I came back to the psychological place
I always end up at in a situation like this: a position of
neutrality.
You
can't be truly sure of anything you learn by reading books,
researching studies, surfing the Internet, watching television,
or listening to the words of other people. In making the
important decisions in your life, it is always best to rely
on your own personal experience.
Yet,
for many problems that confront us, we don't have personal
experience to depend on. So what do you do?
One
thing you can do is to do absolutely nothing. This is the
course of action I take most often and the one I generally
recommend to others. That's because most threats that arise
from wissen-based knowledge (remember the Y2K problem?) turn
out to be nothing at all.
Some
of these threats, though, do turn out to be real.
If
the world really is warming up, it may well affect me. And
if it's going to affect me - to the tune of several million
dollars (not to mention the threat of hurricanes and floods)
- I should at least consider my options.
So
that's where I found myself that morning: emotionally neutral
but resolved to come up with a rational response that would
serve me well if the threat of global warming turns out to
be true.
And
here's what I came up with.
Although
I don't get involved in politics, I'd support initiatives
to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Even though I can't know
for sure whether they are the culprits, there's enough evidence
to suggest that the prudent course of action would be to
take quick and effective steps to reduce them.
My
feeble personal efforts may have no effect whatsoever on
emissions (or emissions may have no effect on global warming).
So I'm also going to prepare myself emotionally for a time
when - sometime in the distant future -I may have to sell
my house at a drastically reduced price or move out of it
entirely.
It
took me about five minutes to make those two decisions. And
now I feel okay about staying in the house I love ... without
fretting too much about global warming.
*
Highly Recommended *
The "Sweet
Spot" - Making More Money From The Same Investment
When
you find the "sweet spot" in investing, you can
put in less effort and see more returns. Dave Lindahl
knows where the sweet spot is in real estate today. He's
actually increasing the appreciation of his properties
beyond the market rate, without costly rehabbing.
Somebody
in your hometown is going to make a killing
using the same techniques as Dave this year - it can
easily be you.
Heart
Attack? Think Twice About Bypass
By
Jon Herring
A
recent Canadian study of 13,000 heart bypass patients found
that the death rate was three to five times higher for those
who had surgery within a week following a heart attack, compared
to those who waited.
Following
a heart attack, the heart muscle is damaged and in a weakened
condition. This limits its ability to pump blood and could
hamper recovery from an invasive bypass procedure. Furthermore,
abnormal heart rhythms that are common after a heart attack
could cause complications during surgery.
The
bottom line: If you have a heart attack and your doctor recommends
immediate bypass surgery, consider waiting a bit. And definitely
get a second - or even a third - opinion.
Feedback
Friday: Robert Ringer's "Charitable Foundation" Article
Robert
Ringer sure did raise some hackles with his article in
Message #1713 ("A
Charitable Foundation for Entrepreneurs?").
Here's
a sampling ...
"I
am saddened by my perception that you stand with Mr.
Ringer ..."
I am saddened to read the acerbic article by Robert Ringer,
and in a quandary about what to do with my subscription to Early
to Rise because you chose to distribute it.
Clearly Mr. Ringer is not thinking about the millions of
individuals - men, women, and children with names, faces,
and feelings - whose lives are positively impacted by the
generosity of philanthropists. To him, they are throwaways,
subhuman victims of circumstance, merely products of cruel
regimes whose lives are not worthy of the West's money if
spending it on them brings nothing more than relief from
pain, suffering, and illness ... and maybe a little hope.
I agree that we also need to fix the roots of these complex
and challenging problems, but I am ashamed of people who
believe that those caught in the crossfire deserve to die
in the meantime. And I am saddened by my perception that
you stand with Mr. Ringer in this either-or philosophy.
Nikki Alexander
Atlanta, GA
"The
best I've read so far ..."
The
article "A Charitable Foundation for Entrepreneurs" by
Robert Ringer is the best one I've read so far. Its honesty
hits the spot. Its common sense is surprisingly simple.
Good job, Robert, even if Bill is nowhere near to see it!
Vicki
Eaton
Wayne, NJ
"How
do these opinions make me healthier, wealthier, or wise?"
I'm a huge fan of Early to Rise, and I recommend
ETR every chance I get. So, for what it's worth, I thought
the tone of Robert Ringer's contribution in Message #1713 was
a frightening departure from your typically high standard.
I don't mean the subject matter, but the approach. It gave
me the feeling that I had encountered the otherwise sane
and sensible Mr. Ringer in the middle of a three-day booze
binge and he was just lashing out at everyone and everything.
The U.N. is corrupt and dysfunctional, great ... Melinda
Gates is a mindless golddigger, really? Okay ... philanthropy
is motivated by vanity, perhaps ... but how do these opinions
make me any healthier, wealthier, or wise?
I'll follow you guys down a side road from time to time because
you've earned my trust, but I gotta tell ya, reading this,
I felt like we were lost.
KR
St. Petersburg, FL
Today's
Action Plan
Which
side of this debate are you on? Join the current discussion
on ETR's Speak
Out forum.
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Word
to the Wise: Lacuna
A "lacuna" (luh-KYOO-nuh)
is a blank space or missing part. The word is derived from
the Latin for "cavity."
Example
(as used by Moses Isegawa in Abyssinian
Chronicles ): "The exodus of wives,
relatives, friends, and hangers-on had left a big howling
lacuna which wrapped the homestead in webs of glorious nostalgia."
